The study aimed to describe the vaccination coverage required to stop the spread of COVID-19 in Sri Lanka using age-stratified and unstratified Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered(SIR) models. Population data were acquired from the census report of the Census and Statistics of Sri Lanka. Models with differential equations forecasted the spread of COVID-19 with vaccination based on parameter estimates. Simulations investigated how the susceptible, infected, and recovered populations varied according to the different vaccination coverages. According to the results, 75% vaccination coverage was required in the entire population of Sri Lanka to interrupt the transmission of COVID-19 completely. The age-stratified SIR model showed that over 90% of vaccination coverage in each age group (below 30, between 30-59, and over 60) was required to interrupt the transmission of COVID-19 in the country. The number of COVID-19 infections in each age group of Sri Lanka reduces with the increase in vaccination coverage. 

A.M.C.H. Attanayake

Journal of Occupational Health and Epidemiology

Abstract:- https://johe.rums.ac.ir/article-1-506-en.html